The change of water level has always been a problem that confuses novices and veterans. Some people like to watch it, but some people dismiss it. The change of water level has no effect! I don’t think so. Let’s look at it from the following
. According to the words of the traders, it should look like this.
The result calculated by the opening formula = A * the experience of the traders in the company's think tank = B
* the company's expected player's understanding of the game = C
, then the final result Chupan result should be = A*a + B*b + C*c
where abc is three coefficients, I gave it a name called Chupan system coefficient. a+b+c= 100% different *companies The coefficient system of the game is definitely different, and it is also impossible for many players to know and predict.
Explain the above formula, for example, in a game, *company is a certain game (here mostly refers to the European game, because the European game is a guide game, is the first to open), the first thing to calculate the probability of its occurrence is to calculate its occurrence probability, assuming that the probability calculated by the opening company is 40%, and the probability obtained by the think tank traders is 45% and *company It is estimated that the probability in the eyes of the players is 70%.
Then the probability of the final offer is: 40%*a + 45%*b + 70%*c. It
can be seen from the above companies that *company’s opening formula (or Its opening calculation theory) is the first of the three factors that affect the initial market. Many people tend to ignore the role of *company’s think tank traders’ experience result B and *company’s expected player’s understanding of the game result C .I remember that there was a classic article on the forum that mentioned a theory similar to the above, but only C was mentioned, not B. Among the
three factors of ABC:
A is almost unchanged after the opening, Because formulas and theories only process data, it is impossible for the same data to produce different results in a short period of time.
B may make minor adjustments, and some news and changes before the game may cause think tanks and traders to change their opinions. View of a game.
C is the factor that is most likely to change. Because players’ views on a game are difficult to use data and theory to count, *company is often an estimated result. The above explanation is my understanding of
. After the set is opened, it actually reacts to C. Players will make certain adjustments according to the initial set made by *company. In fact, changes in the game one or two days before the game are also mixed in. So in When officially accepting *, Chupan often makes certain adjustments.
Introduce the system coefficient of abc in the above example, set a = 40% b = 20% c = 40%, and the probability is: (40%*40+45% *20%+70%*40%)= 53%
Assuming that there is a change before and after the acceptance, the think tank of *company thinks that the probability should be adjusted to 40%, but the public thinks it should rise to 80%. After the
adjustment The probability is: (40%*40+40%*20%+80%*40%)= 56%,
and it is obvious that the company is not optimistic about the outcome of this match, and instead increases the probability of its occurrence in terms of odds Situation.
Using this formula, you can evolve the change of the two values of bc, which can explain most of the changes between the initial market and the betting market. I will not demonstrate them one by one here. And the so-called big heat must die is not necessarily All appear, and the explanation of this formula is that if the event A is the most popular event, the odds of the company must be consistent with the enthusiasm of the public, and the popularity may not necessarily die. Once the odds of the company change Less than the enthusiasm of many people, if there is a big difference between the two, then the big fever will die.
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