"Odds Football Lottery" summary of European odds research highlights

Sportsbook bonuses
Post Reply
Bookmaker
Posts: 5734
Joined: Thu Jun 16, 2022 9:04 am

"Odds Football Lottery" summary of European odds research highlights

Post by Bookmaker »

Five-point method:
★Recent statistical data of the competing teams: home and away results, recent rounds of matches, points and rankings. ——Analyze the current situation.
☆Historical confrontation record: the historical total score of the home team against the visiting team, and the record of the confrontation in recent seasons. ——Advantages and disadvantages of the match.
☆Pre-match news: Injured soldiers and special news. ——On-the-spot combat status.
☆Competition environment: regional and cultural characteristics, weather. ——Regional characteristics and competition venue conditions.
★Odds handicap data: Team winning and losing statistics and odds data. ——Analyze the rationality of the odds.
Gallbladder: Steady gallbladder, flat gallbladder, cold
gallbladder Unpopular conditions:
1. Steady gallbladder is unpopular.
2. Double matches a week are a breeding ground for upsets. (In the round of league games before the Champions League, strong teams go out cold in order to retain their strength. Strong teams competing in European wars [Champions League, UEFA Cup] affects the league)
3. Keep an eye on "nervous" teams. When you are strong, you are stronger; when you are weak, you are not strong. 07-08 Middle and Si Shu Dine.
Avoid by all means is cold blindly. The unpopular choice is best to adopt the strategy of "right way + anti-cold".
Football lottery belongs to the category of gambling, which is different from gambling. Gambling relies on luck, while gambling mainly relies on the player's analysis and judgment. Sports betting is a type of investment, just like buying stocks.
Successful investment = systematic actions + precise analysis + strong sense of responsibility + sufficient information.
Chip operation allocation skills:
1. Pay equal attention to mentality control and capital control. Mentality control: It is unrealistic to fantasize about getting rich overnight. With the mentality of playing a long game, you can play all year round, and there are always opportunities. Control funds: Tolerance range, to prevent excessive pressure from causing mental imbalance. Overall macro grasp: strong dialogue, relegation, derby (national and city) increase the difficulty.
2. "Difficulty + Unpopularity" is the necessary condition and the main condition for us to increase investment. Periods of high incidence of upsets: the first few rounds at the beginning of the season, the last few rounds at the end of the season, around the winter break in the middle of the season and before and after double games in a week.
Football Lottery Authoritative Prediction Method
1. ELO forecasting method.
Created by American physicist Dr. Aroad Elo to predict chess. Jaques Black improved the Elo prediction method, which is now widely used in football betting.
The prediction regression equation of the Elo prediction method is: the possibility of the home team winning = 44.8% + (0.53% multiplied by the point difference between the two teams)
the away team wins by studying the points of the team before the game. The possibility = 24.5% + (0.39% times the point difference between the two teams)
2. Comparative prediction method of goal rate.
In 1990, David Jackson and KR Mosheski published a paper "Index Gambling in Games" at the International Gaming Conference, proposing to use the average goal rate per game as the mathematics for predicting a team's next game performance Model. Predict the Premier League and Serie A with the highest accuracy. The goal rate prediction method has four principles:
1. When the difference between the average goal rates of the two participating parties is more than 0.30 (not including 0.30), the team with the higher average goal rate wins.
2. When the difference between the average goal rates of the two participating teams is 0.10 to 0.30 (inclusive), if the home team's average goal rate is higher, the home team wins.
3. When the difference between the average scoring rate of the two teams is more than 0.10 to 0.30 (including 0.30), if the average scoring rate of the home team is lower than that of the visiting team, the home team wins or draws.
4. When the difference in average goal rates between the two participating teams is less than 0.10 (inclusive), the home team wins or draws.
3. The comparison prediction method of the last six games.
It was first provided by British newspapers to lottery players and a simple prediction method. After improvement, there are four principles:
1. When the score difference between the two teams in the last six games is 6 or more, the team with the highest score wins.
2. When the point difference between the two sides in the last six games is 5, if the home team has the highest points in the last six games, the home team wins; if the home team has the lowest points in the last six games, the home team wins or draws.
3. When the point difference between the two participating teams in the last six games is 2-4, the team with higher points in the last six games wins.
4. When the point difference between the two sides in the last six games is 1 or 0, the home team wins or draws.
Odds are the reciprocal of the theoretical winning rate. Win rate + draw rate + loss rate > 100%
The actual win rate is difficult to calculate.
Odds Px Probability M=100% "Fair Odds" (Fair Odds)
MxP1<100% (P1
< P>
C=A÷B
P=C-Cx10%
(A: base for calculating percentage probability, set as 100; B: The percentage probability obtained by the gaming company's analysis)
(C: The result obtained by A÷B; P: It is the final calculated odds; 10%: The profit adjustment coefficient, each company is different, it is a variable)
such as: Arsenal 2.25 3.00 3.00 Manchester United.
Through analysis, the home team’s winning rate is 40% (actual winning rate), and the profit adjustment coefficient is 10%.
C=100÷40=2.5
​​p=2.5-2.5x10%=2.25.
Through analysis, the probability of a draw and away win is 30%. (Actual winning rate), the profit adjustment coefficient is 10%
C=100÷30=3.33
p=3.33-3.33x10%=3.00
The actual winning rate percentage (B) and profit adjustment coefficient (10%) obtained by the betting company’s pre-game analysis We have no way of knowing.
1. Average odds: average odds of 100 European gaming companies.
2. Odds trend: focus on changes in on-the-spot odds. The purpose of gaming companies - to earn money with minimal risk Get the biggest profit.
3. Odds statistics: Choose one or two mainstream gambling companies for long-term tracking. But in the gambling world, "absolute rules" do not exist.
4. Odds dispersion - the difference in odds: a state of the degree of difference in odds. The main winning odds of many bookmakers are very different, so we must attach great importance to it. If the difference is small, it means that the bookmakers have the same opinion. The more dispersed the game, the more prone to problems.

The main reasons for changes in odds:
1. The basic situation of the team has changed, such as injuries to the main players;
2. The state and strength shown in recent games;
3. The most important thing is to adjust the odds according to the distribution of betting amounts and reduce gambling The operating risk of the company is how match-fixing happens.
——It is recommended to mainly research and track one or two mainstream bookmakers, and then use the odds of multiple bookmakers as a reference for betting.
Post Reply