How bookmakers open the market--Series of gambling theory

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How bookmakers open the market--Series of gambling theory

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If we want to understand anything, finding its principles is the most important thing. As mentioned before, there is a seriously unequal relationship between gaming companies and ordinary lottery players in accessing information (this is essentially the same relationship as the relationship between financial giants and ordinary retail investors in the capital investment market), but there is a gap between different gaming companies in accessing information. There will be no obvious difference in information. For a specific game, the basic steps for bookmakers to operate European odds (standard handicap 1X2) and Asian handicap are as follows: 1. Collect all data and information related to

  this game. ;

  Second, repeatedly study and analyze these data and information to estimate the probability of three outcomes: home win, draw, and away win; third

  , based on the probability, combined with the odds set by the gaming company, European odds (initial odds) =1/Probability*Odds rate, and then open the Asian handicap based on the European odds;

  fourth, adjust the European odds and Asian handicap according to different situations.

  There are currently many opinions related to European odds, such as "XX company offers odds of 1.5, 3.6, 6.0, indicating...", "Several companies that are more accurate (rigorous) in opening Serie A include XX company, XX company and "XX Company", "Large-scale European bookmakers have close to 100% confidence in the major leagues, and the possibility of errors in opening (odds) is zero", "The average odds of about twenty bookmakers in different regions are of relatively valuable reference. "etc. In the "Fourth Betting Theory Series" we emphasized that the European odds are a kind of dynamic data. If you look at the initial odds, they are issued a few days or even ten days before the game. From the initial odds to a few minutes before the game, What changes have occurred in factors related to the game during a period of time? The initial compensation does not include this aspect; if you look at the real-time odds, it is changing all the time. More importantly, each betting company issues the initial compensation at different times. , the initial odds issued are also different; each gaming company adjusts the odds at different times, and the extent of the odds adjustment is also different. I would like to ask all the odds experts: What does the initial loss mean? Does a set of real-time odds that change all the time say anything? Does the betting company's odds that are more accurate at the opening refer to the initial odds, or the real-time odds that change all the time? When is it more accurate, and what is more accurate? For the same game, more than 100 betting companies have different odds. How to explain "the possibility of the betting company's opening (odds) error is zero"? Since the certainty of the game is close to 100%, why do there still continue to be What about the bankruptcy of gaming companies? The average odds of about twenty gaming companies in different regions change all the time. When does the average value have reference value? What reference value does it have?

  In particular, the European odds (initial loss) = 1/probability * payout rate. The initial loss is the odds issued by the betting company a few days (or even more than ten days) before the game. The time for each betting company to issue the initial loss is different. The numerical value of the initial payout is also different (because the probability in the formula is an estimated value, and the payout ratio set by each gaming company is also different, small deviations in probability and payout ratio can lead to obvious differences in the initial payout of each gaming company); as time goes by Until a few minutes before the game, the betting company will continue to adjust the odds according to changes in various factors. The European odds that our lottery players see are the odds that are constantly adjusted (real-time odds), and the real-time odds are It is obtained from the adjustment of the initial compensation, and there are obvious differences between the initial compensation of each gaming company. In addition, each gaming company adjusts the odds at different times and the extent of the adjustment of the odds is also different, which leads to the difference between each gaming company. Real-time odds vary widely between companies. Once again, European odds are a dynamic data that already incorporates all match-related factors and is the basis for all football betting. Instead, study and compare European odds alone between individual or a few gaming companies (no matter how strong the company is, such as Ladbrokes, William, Weide, Fuzhou, Yishengbo, bwin, bet365, SNAI, Interwetten, etc.) The difference (whether it is initial odds or real-time odds) will have no consequences. However, the European odds as a whole will not move blindly. There will be reasons for the violent fluctuations and large adjustments in the European odds of hundreds of companies. If any golfer can determine the reasons for the violent fluctuations and large adjustments in the European odds of a game, he will Open the door to victory and become an eternal winner. This is the finishing touch of my "Betting Theory Series".

  Related to the Asian Handicap, such as "The lowest water in the upper handicap of a hemisphere proves that the bookmaker is particularly optimistic about the upper handicap", "The high water in the upper handicap of a hemisphere/1 goal proves that the bookmaker lacks confidence in the upper handicap and may induce the upper handicap", "XX League Handicap Analysis, from the perspective of Macau (or Ladbrokes, etc.) handicap, it shows. I am particularly optimistic (support) the upper handicap" and so on. Again, all Asian handicap odds are derived from European odds (standard odds 1X2), which evolved from the hemisphere odds. Many golfers know that there is a reference and conversion model from European odds to Asian odds, such as 2.10 corresponds to a tie/half ball, and 1.60 corresponds to a half ball/1 ball. This is true, but golfers who know the reason (such as why 2.10 is a tie/half ball, and why 1.60 is a half ball/1 ball) may not even know 1%. Less than; Asian handicap is a more understandable betting form (two betting options) that is different from European odds (multiple betting options) and is set up by gaming companies in order to attract more players to bet. It originated in Asia, as the mainstream game for lottery players in Asia, is called Asian Handicap. It is not the currently popular "bookmaker" in order to confuse the strength (strength gap) of both sides of the game, increase the difficulty of betting for lottery players, and make it easier to balance lottery players' bets. Rake (commission), so the handicap happens”. There are also many betting companies that offer Asian handicap. As mentioned before, Asian handicap is called active handicap, and it has greater freedom. Take a game as an example: Manchester United-Liverpool, the European odds are 1.7 for Manchester United to win, and a draw. 3.1, Liverpool wins 5.0. The bookmaker can offer Manchester United (1.7) half-goal Liverpool (2.15), or Manchester United (1.9) half-goal/1-goal Liverpool (1.95) for lottery players to choose to bet at will. This can be explained. What's the problem? To study and analyze the handicap alone is simply to sacrifice the fundamentals for the inferior. This "primary" is the European odds, which is the basis of football betting and the principle of football betting. Asian Handicap is rubbish, because the result (goal difference) targeted by Asian Handicap is seriously disconnected from the direct result of both sides of the game (3-1-0), which has lost the meaning of the football game itself. What’s more terrible is that By frequently changing the handicap, it confuses the eyes of lottery players, disrupts the thinking of betting players, and makes everyone waste too much time thinking about its intentions (especially the random changes of the Macau handicap, which is actually a sign of too much strength). Weak and unable to withstand the storm, even many events dare not open. Compared with those European gaming companies, Macau lottery companies are not worth mentioning at all. There are many lottery friends and lottery players who worship the Macau handicap as a god and pay attention to the Macau handicap. Every move of the mouth, wasting too much time to ponder its intention, blinding the eyes.

  The fallacy of the so-called "odds masters" and "handicap experts" has been refuted above. There is also a long-standing legend in the world, related to the so-called "traders", which is very vivid. First of all, "traders" cannot provide themselves with There is no record of identification in the GA department, and the gaming company will not issue a certificate for him. Is he really a trader? The most important thing is that the arguments and views of these so-called "traders" cannot be established in the world. Many of us have little knowledge of it. Regarding the principles of football betting, those with a little theoretical level can use a few simple questions to reveal their true colors to these "traders". Let's expose all the false advertisements below. On many football websites and professional football newspapers and periodicals, we can see such things as "100% match-fixing material (agreed ball)", "Insider information from betting companies", "One bet to turn the tables", "Decisive material 8,000 yuan/game", " The long-term winning rate of this website is over 80%, please send the number XX to XXXX to request” and so on. Here, I refer to them collectively as "Kaizi material".

  Let's first talk about "fixed ball materials" and "agreed ball". As mentioned many times before, those who manipulate the game spend a very high cost. In order to complete as much betting as possible, they will find ways to block the news, even if someone If you leak the information, by the time the information is sold to you, the bookmaker will have already closed the market. Is it still useful? Let’s talk about “bookmaker insider information”. Bookmakers will not manipulate games. We have made it clear before that bookmakers may be particularly optimistic about certain events, but they are definitely trying to lure people into betting, and they will also find ways to block information. And spread false statements and information through various media, will you want to share its cake?

  When we deal with those who promote "match-fixing", "agreed match", "bookmaker insider information" and other opinions, we can use one sentence (were you there at the time, did you place a heavy bet?) to make him unable to justify himself. .

  As for the "killing material of 8,000 yuan/game" and "one bet to turn the tables", you wouldn't dare to bet on them for free, right? If you are 100% sure that you still need to sell it to someone else, why don’t you sell your house to secure the purchase order? And the information that can be obtained by sending text messages really has a winning rate of more than 80%. Then people across the country do not have to do anything. Everyone buys a mobile phone to send text messages to receive information and then bet, and just wait for the betting company to send the money. Bar.

  Without scientific and rigorous theoretical support, any recommendation is just a guess. The long-term winning rate of the Asian Handicap will always stay between 45% and 55%. Do not believe these materials easily, and there is no need to waste time to verify its winning rate. For those websites that "announce the start of the game", it is not easy to modify and delete "dead material" after the game. Anyone can do a very brilliant job of "promoting track record".

  The above only represents my personal views. If you have any questions or different opinions, please write to me. I hope you can give me some advice.
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