10 Years of Gaming: Research on the Core Variance Profit Method of Odds [2]

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Bookmaker
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10 Years of Gaming: Research on the Core Variance Profit Method of Odds [2]

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Odds Handicap Analysis (4)

Due to the recent sorting and updating of historical data, I have been discussing with you in the future. I came up today and saw that my humble opinion was pushed out, so I will discuss with you again. Due to the slow typing speed and typing while thinking, Play more and play less and hope for your understanding. : Continue (3) The selection of European gaming companies is gradually determined after continuous comparison and screening.

The selection of European bookmakers generally falls into the following categories:

1. Local companies (such as SNAI in Italy, ODDSET in Germany, etc.) 2. Several companies in the same region (such as the United Kingdom, Austria, etc.) 3. Several global and peripheral companies (such as Ladbrokes in Gibraltar) , Honduras INTERNET1*

2. FONBET in Russia, etc.). The selection of bookmakers should be combined with the European average odds and the highest and lowest odds, and should be combined with the comparison of expected profits. The expected profit index is very important, and the index should also be calculated in the Asian market (I will talk briefly with you later. If you often study the European market, you will find that the expected profit of the highest odds of companies in the same region is sometimes negative. For example: the highest winning is 2.0, the highest is 4.0, and the highest is 5.0 for negative. What is the expected profit at odds? (1/2+1/4+1/5)=-0.05, the net loss of the odds is 5%, which means that if we buy 100 yuan each, we will make a profit of 300*0.05=15 yuan, any one It is impossible for bookmakers to offer such odds, but if such a situation is often encountered in comprehensive research, generally there must be ultra-high and ultra-low odds of a certain company in this situation, which means that it must be There is a certain company that thinks it is very sure of a certain outcome (win-lose draw), no matter whether the company's judgment is right or wrong, it is very helpful for our screening work.

In addition, under normal circumstances, each bookmaker has its own customary odds. If the company offers rare odds, it must be vigilant and carefully analyzed. The choice of fixed bookmakers Personally think that everyone can choose about 20 according to their own time and energy, and the average odds of research increase to about 50. But no matter how much the most taboo is to change. Personally, I think that due to the problem of football lottery sales time, everyone should put more effort into the European market, and master the skills of the European market, and it is relatively easy to watch the Asian market.

1.2.2 Rough solution of Asian initial market

Take the Australian market as an example for the first Asian market. If we have watched the market for a long time, when we get the odds of the initial market, we will have a first impression of each market, whether it is a conspiracy or a gambling market. For example, Cuomo-Atlanta in the early stage The hemispherical disc will immediately surprise everyone when they see it. Because the Australian handicap is manipulated by the change of the handicap water level, and a large number of bets are basically carried out on the spot, we are sometimes easily mistaken by it when betting on football betting. But I still feel the pros outweigh the cons.

The initial Australian market should be combined with the European initial market, the Macau standard market and other Asian markets. At present, there are many guides for the conversion of Australian and European games online. However, because the expected profits contained in each odds of European games are sometimes quite different, I personally think that the conversion of European and Australian games can be converted with a slightly more accurate theoretical winning rate. Another reason is that the theoretical winning rate can be regarded as the theoretical betting index to calculate the expected profit in the initial Australian market. The theoretical winning rate is better to calculate, 1/(odds + odds * expected profit) For the conversion of theoretical winning rate and Australian market, I have a calculation, but I can't remember exactly, the winning rate of 0.5 (50%) can probably be converted to 0.8 0.5 1.05 .

Calculation of expected profit in Australian market

The calculation of the expected profit in the Australian market is carried out using the Macau standard market and the European average initial market, and the highest and lowest European odds are used for comparison. Before calculating the profit of the Australian market, we have to make an assumption: that is, the Macau Standard Market (or the European Initial Market) is considered to be absolutely accurate, and its winning rate represents the betting ratio. For example, the standard set (or European initial set) is: 1.7 3 4.7 Theoretical winning rate ABC Handicap 0.9 0.5 0.95 Imagine how many people are over the top? It should be A (that is, the person who thinks the home team wins), and the person who presses the plate should be B+C (that is, the person who believes that the home team is tied or the home team loses) In this way, we can initially calculate that the profit of winning the Australian game in the last game is 1-AA*0.9 The profit of losing the Australian market is 1-(B+C)-(B+C)*0.95. If the algorithm is calculated for a long time, I believe everyone will gain something, and the changes in the Australian market and the water level should be analyzed accordingly. Can see the real intention of the dealer. (However, the profit calculation is only static, and there is a corresponding betting influence coefficient for the change of the handicap, which we will analyze later.) This involves another problem, that is, the hemisphere and the tie game are easier to calculate (the tie game can be calculated like this, think that Those who guessed tie do not bet, remove the ratio of tie, and use the ratio of winning and losing, for example, win 0.35, draw 0.3 and lose 0.35, calculate the upper order as 0.35/(0.35+0.35)=0.5, and the lower order as 1-0.5=0.5) , and it is difficult to calculate the odds of flat half, half one, one ball and more. Here I can recommend an algorithm to you, that is, adding a certain increase or decrease coefficient. I have calculated a coefficient, but I can't remember the specific Very clear, but this coefficient is not very important, it is probably close to use (proportional increase or decrease with theoretical win rate). Hit this up today.

This is an old article by a friend of ZGZCW named 70%. It is very incisive. Later, after researching, I believe that the relationship between European compensation and Asian compensation is not as linear as he said. It is mixed with trader resistance\ Introduce, fight, lure, and make up for too real or too empty the initial market. Therefore, Jingyan European loss has huge profit value. I have also extended the maximum ODDS and minimum ODDS amplitudes to compare the odds. As well as the relative equilibrium point between the average ODDS and the maximum/minimum ODDS, the respective comparative odds of formula 1 2 X have the maximum odds set as H, the minimum odds as L, and the average odds as A, then each column of odds The amplitude of the rate PAH/PAL=(H/L-1)*100(%); the relative equilibrium point=(AL)/(HA)*100(%) Combined with the risk elasticity coefficient of the above article, the three changes in size The relationship characteristics and the statistical significance of a single maximum or minimum value can basically determine 65% of the game. Of course, the extreme value can be accurate to 95%, and the other 5% is the temporary buy-in phenomenon that occurs in the struggle between the dealers- ------For example, some crops have already bought the result of the match, so their bets on the away win are extremely small, but half an hour before the game, another crop has a large amount of money to win the home game, so temporarily move a stronger relationship to change the game. Passing the master and so on.---This situation is very obvious in the mid-range of Serie A, showing the fierce scene of the wrestling between the big villages. Well, I hope you are helpful.

I hope you don’t reprint it. I know the boring research. Like 70%, the data can use a sample of 5 million odds. Remember that if there is a significantly low risk elasticity (usually 87% or less in each period), it is best to delete this data. Generally, It is an interference company specially set by the gambling company group to interfere with data analysis - these companies are generally small and medium-sized, with ultra-low odds and small fluctuations. This is a profitable research method that I have personally experienced so far.

He does not have a specific method for analysis. Just comparing the risk elasticity coefficient with the long-term (30-period league) average value, if it is higher than that, it is a cold game, and if it is lower than that, it is a match-fixing analysis, which cannot guarantee a correct rate of more than 65%. And it is actually proved that the amplitude of each odds interval of Serie A \ Premier League \ German frame \ French Ligue 1 PAH/PAL=(H/L-1)*100(%); Relative equilibrium point=(AL)/(HA)*100 (%) and the characteristic change of the risk elasticity coefficient, as well as the relationship between the respective numerical value distribution and the victory, draw and defeat, have their own special characteristics, and the characteristics of false balls—here refers to the tacit understanding balls are so subtle, like the smell in the air before the thunderstorm. As subtle and natural as the smell of rain ----- can only be tasted through the same method of analysis of a large number of historical games,

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In general, the amplitude PAH/PAL reflects the degree of divergence between the gamblers' opinions on the odds of betting and the intensity of the competition between the good and the bad. Therefore, if the odds with the largest amplitude are in line with the game, it is often a cold game; optimistic means that the certainty of the odds is high, so the bet is heavy, and the company will inevitably reduce the odds value in order to maintain balance and avoid risks. The opposite is also true. If both sides have great power, and there may be regional power disparity on a global scale, the difference between the minimum ODDS and the maximum ODDS is relatively large. Large (belonging to the normal range of statistics), but a certain company has opened ultra-low odds, resulting in a large amplitude, and such a relative equilibrium point must be at a high (close to the highest odds) The final result is often the pair of the odds. , which can only be explained as the big crocodile quietly launched a company after taking control of the game, causing ripples. The gambling companies can lock up the risk through mutual purchases and pass it on to ordinary gamblers through confusion. Of course, it is not ruled out that the unlucky company suffers. The relative equilibrium point reflects the power comparison between the bullish and bearish parties. Under the roughly average distribution of the number of companies between the amplitude areas, the bullish party has more power than the bearish party, and the point is closer to the highest odds, and vice versa, close to the lowest odds; above As far as the judgment of a single item of odds is concerned, in fact, after judging one by one, it is necessary to compare and judge the amplitude\relative equilibrium point\ and the risk elasticity coefficient of the three items of 1 X 2—must be similar or identical in history. An example comparison of the analysis of the odds ratio leads to the results of games with such a characteristic distribution in the same league history, the fact is very interesting - the classic distribution is not only amazingly the same results, but also surprisingly similar scores - It can be framed by 2~3 kinds of scores! And the draw in Serie A has a strong odds feature, which will be discussed later.

Football odds of draw and draw: eg Newcastle-Manchester United 2.8-3.0-3.0, bookmaker's margin

1/2.8+1/3+1/3-1=2.38%, for example, the gambler bets 1 yuan each in his life, a total of 3 yuan, then the gambling company finally pays him 2.8, or 3 yuan, the average is ( 2.8+3+3)/3=2.93, the gambling company gets a constant gain, and the difference 3-2.93=0.067 yuan is the profit margin of the gambling company, which is 2.38% according to the ratio. In other words, the gambler's rate of return is -2.38%.

In football lottery, the official maximum rebate rate is 70%, so the official profit rate of football lottery is >=30%, in other words, the gambler's return rate is <=-30%.

Stock speculation: Since there is no general short selling mechanism for individual stocks, the short profit is 0. According to the 10-year volatility characteristics of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, the long profit is 6000-1600=4400, and the short profit = long loss 6000-1800=4200 , the actual return (4400-4200)/1600=12.5%, the average annual return is 12.5%/10=1.25%, this is a rough calculation from the most ideal lowest point to buy the index and hold it for 10 years to the present, don’t blame me The extreme high and low points of the index are inaccurate, and I rarely play it.

Commodity futures, taking London silver as an example, in the past 10 years, from US$5/oz to a maximum of US$49.8/oz, the average rate of correction is 30%,

Calculate the return according to the average volatility. If the leverage ratio is 1:20, take 1 lot as an example. Long (49.8-5)*5000=224,000 US dollars, during the period, seize the main callback and short (49.8-5)*30%* 5000=67200, a total of 291200 US dollars, of course, they are all reversed, and the loss is 291200 US dollars. Therefore, the income of more than 70% of the right is 203840, and the capital is 1250 US dollars. Considering the protective ratio of 1:10, the initial capital is 12500. Then the 10-year rate of return is 203,840/12,500*100%=163,000%. For individuals, the cost of all mistakes is a loss of all capital of $12,500

As for the odds of TOP10 billiards players, taking Xiao Ding as an example, the average annual event revenue is about 400,000 pounds, or 4 million yuan, and the advertising revenue is synchronized with his billiards career. He grasps the essence and only analyzes the game revenue. The contribution of the game is the skill and physical fitness. This belongs to the talent that is not easy to calculate. For billiards, the most contribution of the players is the result of poor luck and narrowed income. It has been sluggish for several years, and the state can’t stand it, then change careers. Converted to 1/(10/6 billion) = 600 million (yuan), then the rate of return is 4 million/600 million = 0.67%

Black market boxing odds, the winner of a boxing match is calculated according to the relevant posts, and the upper limit is 50,000. The annual income is 2 million according to the calculation of 40 games, but it is practically impossible. The ideal annual income is 2 million. This is boxing tyrants. Level, but pay, if he succeeds in retirement, the average rate of return is 2 million/1.2 billion = 0.154%, but most of them end up hanging up, and the rate of return is close to infinitesimal.

My Opinion on Buddha The Buddha said: If I don't go to hell, whoever goes to hell.

Buddha went to hell to experience life, and then brought it to the human world, to write stories, to publicize, to guide all beings to practice, to gather enough energy, to go beyond the three realms, and to return to the nine heavens.

Therefore, the Buddha went to hell without turning himself into a ghost

Therefore, Buddha---disassembled into human---Fu----> not human,

Therefore, excluding ghosts and people, it can only be God,

Therefore, Buddhas possess the energy of gods, and they are different from gods in that they focus on helping the sufferings of samsara of all beings in the three realms, and try to guide them beyond the three realms to ascend to heaven.

Therefore, the present Buddha is compassionate, and the past Buddha is the mortal beings who experience the five flavors and seven emotions, whether they are human beings, ghosts or rats, and future Buddhas.

So guys, GG/MM is the Buddha in the past, but now it's a big living person who is in love, a big flower and a big intestine, haha
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