10 Years of Gaming: Research on the Core Variance Profit Method of Odds [1]

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Bookmaker
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10 Years of Gaming: Research on the Core Variance Profit Method of Odds [1]

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This is an old article by a friend of ZGZCW named 70%, which is very incisive. Later, after researching, I believed that the relationship between European compensation and Asian compensation is not as linear as he said. It is mixed with trader resistance\ Introduce, fight, lure, and make up for too real or too empty the initial market. Therefore, Jingyan European loss has huge profit value. I have also extended the maximum ODDS and minimum ODDS amplitudes to compare the odds. And concepts such as the relative equilibrium point of the average ODDS between the maximum/minimum ODDS

Odds Handicap Analysis (1)

As we all know, guessing the outcome of the game is inseparable from the odds. For most people like you and me, it is impossible to grasp and understand really useful information. The same is true for all kinds of media. Just imagine that domestic media have interviewed There are several of Inzaghi and Del Piero, and the A and A are not clear. It is said that the victory or defeat of the game has no influence on its existence and development, so the media will never spend a lot of time and energy to study who wins the game or who wins by a few goals, and who really cares about the result of the game,

1. Club owners and players;

2. Gaming companies;

3. You and I wait for the person who bought the game.

Considering the attitude of human beings towards money, I think only the team itself can accurately predict the result of the game, followed by the bookmaker, and the only thing we can see that can penetrate the result of the game is the odds offered by the bookmaker, although It is impossible for the bookmaker to accurately predict the results of all games, but its accuracy is quite high. If you can accurately understand the intention of the bookmaker, you can make sure that you don’t lose money when you buy a ball. Every bookmaker has carefully calculated the odds. From the odds, we can infiltrate many things (whether it is match-fixing, the team's desire to win, etc.), and each company will use the information it has. . Customers’ betting habits offer different odds. Since European bookmakers start to accept bets after they are issued, and the big bookmakers basically do not adjust the odds after they are issued, the odds are generally very cautious.

Predicting the outcome of the game can generally be done in the following steps:

1. Study the average odds in the initial European market (Tuesday), the profit and the odds in the initial market are abnormal. Under normal circumstances, the possibility of match-fixing or accidental balls with ultra-low or ultra-high profits is quite high. If the odds are abnormal, you should also pay attention. For example, if the win is 1.7, the loss should be opened to more than 4.5. If it is opened to 4.2 and 4.3, special attention should be paid to see if there is a fake ball or an accidental ball.

2. Research and fix the initial offer of several gaming companies

3. Compare the initial odds of winning

4. Study European Midday (Thursday)

5. Study the official line

6. Compare the odds of European bookmakers that open later (Thursday, Friday)

7. Live European odds (on the day of the match)

8. On-the-spot odds and post-opening market and water level changes (specific research methods follow-up)

Odds Handicap Analysis (2) Continue: 1. European Initial Market Analysis 1.1 Analysis of European Initial Market Average Odds

Generally, the initial market analysis can be done on Tuesday, when the Asian winning market is basically opened. First of all, analyze the profit. For games with ultra-low profits, you can basically consider them on the right path. Under normal circumstances, games with ultra-low profits are generally considered unlikely accidents by bookmakers (another reason is match-fixing), and the profits are too high. The high ones are generally considered by most bookmakers to be difficult to predict or lack of understanding of the game information, and use high profits to avoid risks. If the game is a strong and weak confrontation, it is necessary to consider the possibility of upsets, such as several typical games in Serie A: The ones with ultra-low profits are: Bologna-Brescia 3:0 Udinese-Bologna 0:0 (fixing, behind Reanalysis) Turin-Juventus 0:4 Parma-Roma 3:0 (fixing) The most profitable ones are: Inter Milan-Udinese 1:2 Chievo-AC Milan 2:1 Brescia-Juventus 2:0 After having a general understanding of the profit situation, it is necessary to conduct a comparative study in combination with the specific gaming company and the initial Asian single-win market. Tired of playing, let's hit this first today.

1.2 After studying the profit and abnormal situation of the average odds in the European initial market, it is necessary to analyze it in combination with the specific bookmaker and the Asian winning market. First answer a question raised in the last reply, that is, the calculation method of profit. The calculation method of profit is divided into two steps. First, calculate the expected profit of the gaming company (also called the risk adjustment coefficient). We use this profit in the initial analysis. The calculation method To use the reciprocal sum of the odds of winning and losing, minus 1, for example: win 1.25 draw 5 lose 10, the expected profit is (1/1.25+1/5+1/10)-1=0.1, that is, the expected profit of the bookmaker is 10 %.

Secondly, the actual profit is calculated. The actual profit is calculated according to its specific betting index combined with the odds. The profit can only be calculated when the betting is over. The details are more complicated, and I will talk about it later. When we study the initial market, we can use the expected profit, and the actual profit can be analyzed by ourselves based on our feelings and various news. What percentage of people who buy the winning and losing level can be or how much is the difference between buying and selling Asian Unicorn. How many people are there.

After studying the average initial odds, it is necessary to combine the analysis of specific European bookmakers and Asian odds. 1.2.1 European bookmakers’ research on odds analysis is a long-term accumulation process. Don’t expect to have any experience after one or two studies. To win, it takes a lot of time and energy to accumulate data. Take 3+ hours to accumulate and research data.

To study European bookmakers, we must first select several fixed companies and accumulate their odds for a long time. Due to the different geographical locations and betting habits of bookmakers’ customer groups, the odds generally offered are different, such as SNAI Company. It is the largest betting company in Italy. When I researched the company's odds, I found that the company's home team's odds are generally slightly lower than other companies (in addition to the odds, we also need to study the winning rate, the winning rate is restored by the odds, and the winning rate is Very important, I have read almost all the articles on the Internet, there are major errors and mistakes in the research on the winning rate, and I will analyze it later).

The selection of bookmakers is generally divided into two categories: 1. Large companies 2. Small companies are generally less likely to change after the big bookmakers’ odds are issued, so their initial odds are basically the right way and their expected profits are relatively fixed. If the odds are abnormal and the expected profit is too high or too low, it is necessary to consider whether it is a match-fixing or accidental ball. In general, most large bookmakers expect profit when they open a match-fixing (which has been mastered by the company) or a straight ball. Both are quite low, as an example from last time: SNAI's initial expected profit is around 13.5%, while the Udinese-Bologna match's expected profit is only 12.8%, corresponding to its odds research finding that it is tied. The rate is extremely low (2.8, and after the odds restore the winning rate, the possibility of a draw is the highest), the result of the game is 0:0 (considering the tradition of both teams playing match-fixing, I suspect that the game is match-fixing), similar to There are almost every round of the game, and if you study carefully, you will find it. The selection of the big bookmakers (follow-up) wants to study together

Odds Handicap Analysis (3) (Continued from 2): 1.2 After studying the profit and abnormal situation of the average odds in the European initial market, it is necessary to combine the specific bookmakers and Asian winning handicap to analyze. First answer a question raised in the last reply, that is, the calculation method of profit. The calculation method of profit is divided into two steps

First, calculate the expected profit of the bookmaker (also called the risk adjustment coefficient). We use this profit in the initial analysis. The calculation method is to use the reciprocal sum of the odds of winning and losing, minus 1, for example: Win 1.25 Draw 5 Loss 10 The expected profit is (1/1.25+1/5+1/10)-1=0.1, that is, the expected profit of the gaming company is 10%. Secondly, the actual profit is calculated. The actual profit is calculated according to its specific betting index combined with the odds. The profit can only be calculated when the betting is over. The details are more complicated, and I will talk about it later.

When we study the initial market, we can use the expected profit, and the actual profit can be analyzed by ourselves based on our feelings and various news. What percentage of people who buy the winning and losing level can be or how much is the difference between buying and selling Asian Unicorn. How many people are there. After studying the average initial odds, it is necessary to combine the analysis of specific European bookmakers and Asian odds.

1.2.1 European bookmakers’ research on odds analysis is a long-term accumulation process. Don’t expect to have any experience after one or two studies. To win, it takes a lot of time and energy to accumulate data. Take 3+ hours to accumulate and research data.

To study European bookmakers, we must first select several fixed companies and accumulate their odds for a long time. Due to the different geographical locations and betting habits of bookmakers’ customer groups, the odds generally offered are different, such as SNAI Company. It is the largest betting company in Italy. When I researched the company's odds, I found that the company's home team's odds are generally slightly lower than other companies (in addition to the odds, we also need to study the winning rate, the winning rate is restored by the odds, and the winning rate is Very important, I have read almost all the articles on the Internet, there are major errors and mistakes in the research on the winning rate, and I will analyze it later).

The selection of bookmakers is generally divided into two categories: 1. Large companies 2. Small companies are generally less likely to change after the big bookmakers’ odds are issued, so their initial odds are basically the right way and their expected profits are relatively fixed. If the odds are abnormal and the expected profit is too high or too low, it is necessary to consider whether it is a match-fixing or accidental ball. In general, most large bookmakers expect profit when they open a match-fixing (which has been mastered by the company) or a straight ball. Both are quite low, as an example from last time: SNAI's initial expected profit is around 13.5%, while the Udinese-Bologna match's expected profit is only 12.8%, corresponding to its odds research finding that it is tied. The rate is extremely low (2.8, and after the odds restore the winning rate, the possibility of a draw is the highest), the result of the game is 0:0 (considering the tradition of both teams playing match-fixing, I suspect that the game is match-fixing), similar to There are almost every round of the game, and if you study carefully, you will find it. The selection of the big bookmakers (follow-up) wants to study together
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