Some experience in judging handicap through European odds

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Bookmaker
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Some experience in judging handicap through European odds

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Everyone likes to study the Asian game, but my main focus is on the European game. But the European losses are inseparable from the Asian handicap. For example, if you see that the strong home team has no wins, the Asian handicap will naturally be stable. Here is a summary of some achievements in the past period of time, hoping to be helpful to everyone.
[Basic Principles]
Many friends don't understand it very well, so there are many misunderstandings in the understanding of Europay. Here we first break a misunderstanding.
Common Mistakes: Odds represent the probability of winning, and a low opening means a high probability of winning.
This is a big misunderstanding. Odds are not a reflection of actual strength, but the most important thing is a reflection of popularity. The highest state of the bookmaker's odds is not to reduce the payout, but to reduce the betting. The betting company's optimistic results will not necessarily lower the water level. On the contrary, it can often increase it, causing psychological resistance and making you dare not go. This is its highest level. Even if the payout is increased by 0.1, if a large amount of funds can be transferred to the wrong direction, why not do it?
[Example Analysis]
With the above basic understanding, you can enter the topic. Let’s analyze it with a few specific examples.
Example 1:
April 21, 23:00 Premier League Liverpool 2-2 Chelsea
. I believe everyone still remembers the focus of the Premier League. Let’s use this focused analysis~ This is the level of the Asian Handicap, and of course there are even half. In this game, the European odds analysis shows that the home team has no win and has gone to the bottom of the game. Let’s talk about the analysis steps:
1. Fundamental analysis.
Any odds are meaningless without the fundamentals. The home team has a good track record and has only lost once in seven games. This is what makes the home team popular. The away team is more motivated to compete for the top four and its overall strength is slightly stronger. This is what makes the away team popular.
2. Strength positioning
The strength here is a broad sense of strength, which reflects the popularity. In addition to the absolute strength of the players, it also includes the themes mentioned in the above fundamentals. For example, in this game, the absolute strength of the two teams is equal, and each has its own advantages in themes. Considering the home field factor, the popularity of the home team will be slightly higher.
3. Odds analysis
I usually focus on William and Ladbrokes Chupan, and personally think that it is enough to understand the odds of one or two mainstream companies. William 2.20-3.40-3.20, Ladbrokes 2.25-3.00-2.87, looking at the odds, first of all, the analysis does not meet the strength positioning of the two teams.
At first glance, I thought that the home team's odds were low. How do you judge? by comparison! You can look back at the data. In the match between the two teams last year, Chelsea basically gave up the league to prepare for the Champions League. The popularity of the home team was great. The main win was William 2.25 and Ladbrokes 2.30. Compared with Manchester City’s home game against Chelsea this year, Ladbrokes won both. It's 2.10, and Manchester City is so much better than Liverpool. Then I can't help but ask, why can Liverpool open such a low winning bet?
The answer is to deliberately lead the betting to the home team. Here is what I said above. I would rather deliberately lower the home win a little, and William deliberately raises the tie and loss so high to enhance the confidence of the home team. So it is easy for people to preconceive that Liverpool has such a good track record, the possibility of winning is very high, and the goal of the bookmaker has been achieved, so it should be that the home team has no wins and the ball is played.
I also like to use the hypothetical method to analyze, if the bookmaker is optimistic about the home team, how will it open? If it were me, I would raise the home win to above 2.3, open 2.37 or 2.40, drop the away win to 3, or open 2.9. In this way, at first glance, you will feel that the visiting team is going to grab the top four and the home team is in danger. It is the opening method of the main win.
The following two examples are recent and typical. Let me briefly talk about them~
Example 2:
At 01:05 on April 19, Sweden Super Norkoping 1:4 Helsingborg’s
fundamentals are superior, and the visiting team is more famous, but The home team's track record advantage has been unbeaten at home in recent years, which is another example of each with its own theme. William 2.60-3.30-2.62, Ladbrokes even exaggerated 2.37-3.10-2.60. The odds of the previous few times were slightly lower than the visiting team, but this time they deliberately emphasized the "track advantage", so everyone mistakenly I think the home team will not lose (I browsed various football forums and the voices were overwhelmingly one-sided).
If the home team is really undefeated, using the hypothetical method, I will raise the home team to 2.70, and the visiting team will give it around 2.50, making you feel that the visiting team is stronger and more likely to win. This is the way to win the home team.
Example 3:
At 01:00 on April 15th La Liga Zaragoza 0:3 Barcelona
Here is an example of the game for comparison. It is also very typical~
Fundamentally, the away team has just finished the Champions League. It is certain that some of the main players will be absent, but the strength is undoubtedly still very strong. William lost 8.00-4.50-1.40 at the beginning, and the away win is already the highest in the past matchups. Later, it continued to change to 6.50-3.60-1.60, and the draw was made. Illusion (and many people in the major football forums called it cold). As a result, Barcelona played easily. The last set made one goal invincible.
If it is really unpopular, why should I let you see it? I looked at the odds of Real Madrid and Barcelona's upset at the end of the seasons in the past few seasons. The odds are all very normal. There is no odds over 1.40.
【Precautions】
1. Make good use of comparison in odds analysis, but don't blindly compare, but also combine fundamentals. For example, when comparing the odds between this year and last year, it is necessary to see whether the situation of the two teams has changed at the same time in order to obtain a correct judgment.
2. The above experience is more useful in mainstream leagues, especially the Premier League and La Liga. There are too many draws in Serie A and Ligue 1, and the odds system is slightly different.
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