A balanced view of odds analysis

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Bookmaker
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Joined: Thu Jun 16, 2022 9:04 am

A balanced view of odds analysis

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Equilibrium refers to a state of balance. Whether it is from the perspective of the banker's opening or from the perspective of the player (or researcher) who analyzes the odds, it all starts with the most basic balance concept. In my opinion, each specific odds data opened by the bookmaker is based on the comprehensive information of all aspects of a game, and then considers the balance of various factors. The change of odds shows that each The imbalance of various factors, changing from one set of odds to another set of odds, can be considered as a transition from an equilibrium state to a new equilibrium state, that is, from an equilibrium state to a new equilibrium state. I also believe that as long as the dealer can maintain a basic balance, he can maintain the most stable income with the least risk for a long time.
From the perspective of the odds analysis player (or researcher), I think that the most basic analysis method also starts from the standpoint or viewpoint of "balance". Because it is difficult for us to understand the real trading volume of a game betting, the only communication between the dealer and the player is the handicap odds data, so if we agree with the above-mentioned "balance view", our various handicap The odds analysis method must start from understanding the most basic odds balance - the equilibrium state.
William Hill takes a neutral side rate as the keynote. Ladbrokes has adjusted the allocation after the away win is unreasonable. The Asian game does not follow the Asian game of several companies. We think that if the visiting team can win, then the visiting team’s The water level has been greatly increased, because the two teams are not saying that the home team is too strong or something, if that is the case, there will be a feeling of resistance, and the biggest problem is that this game is between SSP and Ladbrokes. , when the SSP opened 2.31 or 2.36 or 1.89 for the main win or guest win, it was originally unfavorable, but if Ladbrokes dropped the odds of this side, the direction of opening these odds would be even more Unfavorable, just like this ball is optimistic about the visiting team Ladbrokes dropping away to win, but in fact there is no way to win!
Let's change our thinking again. If Ladbrokes' 2.25 and William's 2.20 are really optimistic about the visiting team, then like Interwetten's 2.50 and BetandWin's 2. 50 and so on, is it too rich? Because the home team is in too bad a state, winning 7 rounds! In this case, when bet365 rises to even half and Ladbrokes drops the away win, there will definitely be a lot of people chasing the away team. Many companies consciously raise the home win to intensify the number of people chasing the away team. Who would dare to ask for such a cheap price?
My understanding is that in the betting market, it is easier for the fundamentalist to grasp the general trend of the league, such as who will win the championship or who will be relegated. The technical school is like a short-term expert who has a more accurate grasp of a certain game.
What do technical people in the stock market pay most attention to, the price of the stock or the levels of various indicators? neither! The most important thing is volume! Only trading volume can reflect the truest attitude of the market. Therefore, I think that all kinds of forecasting techniques are reasonable at present, and they can also bring a certain winning rate, but the results are not stable. Their common defect is that they are separated from the core element of the economic market-market trading volume. Just like in the stock market, will the same technical indicators move in the same direction in the future? the answer is negative.
We will find this problem during the process of watching the market. Different league bookmakers have different trading methods, and their methods are different in the first half of the night and the second half of the night. My understanding of this is that the amount of betting on games in different leagues and different time periods is different. As a result, the dealer's trading methods must be different. For example: the average single-game betting amount of the Premier League is almost ten times that of other leagues, and the betting amount of key events is far more than ten times. This kind of game must be cautious in the process of trading, and the losses caused by carelessness may be millions of dollars. So I think that in such huge betting games, the dealer must carefully balance the bets. Because water money is abundant enough. If the dealer makes the betting difference between the two sides be more than 5%, it is no different from mutual gambling with individual customers, and the resulting business risk is huge. So I think most of the game betting in this kind of game is balanced, and we don't need to speculate who is cold and who is hot! And please note that in such games, dealers will not easily use some unconventional luring techniques, because once the judgment is wrong, the consequences will be fatal. Only in some small league games, due to the small amount of betting, the dealer will use some tricks to maximize profits.
In addition, for a game, especially for those games with huge bets, I personally feel that some companies may lose money, but it will definitely be profitable for all companies in the entire gambling industry. Therefore, regarding the different rates offered by various companies, I think that in addition to the different customer bases of different companies, the more important issue is the distribution of interests. Therefore, I feel that studying the difference in odds may not be a method that can bring about stable winning rates. Of course, during the research process, we will find that a certain company has a very accurate grasp of several teams in a certain league, such as Ladbrokes vs. Manchester United, Arsenal, etc. But in the process of using it, I found that it can only be used as a reference and cannot be used to make judgments.
Another method is to compare Europe and Asia. I don’t understand this method very well. Because this conversion is also a core secret of the gaming company, it is impossible for ordinary people to understand it. I have seen some conversion formulas and personally feel that if it was that simple, the bookmakers would have closed their doors long ago. Therefore, this method is mostly based on experience, and there is still no guarantee for a stable winning rate.
Not long ago, I saw some articles on a website that made predictions based on the data of the spinach exchange and statistics. Personally, I feel that it may be a good way, after all, it includes the important link I explained earlier---trading volume. The fly in the ointment is that exchange data is the interaction between individual customers, so transactions are often concentrated on one or two of wins, losses, and draws, which is not objective.
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